We were talking this week in the chatroom about the Holiday Effects on Stock Markets
I use to swing trade the QQQ’s ( before they became the QQQQ’s a lot ) and I would use the historic averages to trade them the week before and after a major holiday. I remember doing well into Thanksgiving and Memorial Days and some of the data below confirms that as well.
For the Nasdaq historic performance into Thanksgiving holiday the percentage (%) was much higher ( not sure the time length it was based on but i used this successfully in the past — closed in the Positive over 81% and the day after Thanksgiving closes up over 87% of the time (Trading the QQQQ’s was pretty easy money using these %’s so worked well for me. Have not followed it as closely the past # of years .
If you prefer to trade the Dow you can look at the Dow ($DJIA) into the Thanksgiving holiday :
Since 1950 the DJIA closed higher in 38 out of 59 years and gained for most of the past 10 Thanksgiving weeks
Here are some other charts/notes that you may find helpful for Pre and Post Trading Effects on Stocks and Markets leading up to holidays like:
Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s Day , President’s Day , Good Friday, Memorial Day , Independence Day & Labor Day for the S&P 500 , $DJIA , Nasdaq ($COMPQ) and Russel 2k , Election Day
here is the % performance on the S&P 500 the week afterThanksgiving
Here are the Holiday Effects – Before and After a major holiday like ( 1980 -2007) for S&P 500 , $DJIA $COMPQ (Nasdaq) & Russell 2k
If you really are still hungry for numbers and percentages here is some datat on for Triple Witching results
Some other links that were shared in the chatroom were:
http://www.themarketfinancial.com/thanksgiving-day-week-2/104845 (shows more %’s into thanksgiving)
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2010/11/thanksgiving-week-tendencies-revisited.html ( Thanksgiving Week Tendencies 1961-2009 based on $100k invested)
Let me know if you have other links you have found helpful – I had a few other links and if I find them, will update them to this blog post