Weekend Update 1/30/2011

This weekend update is going to be primarily chart driven due to the action in the market this week.  Charts for the major indicies as well as a selection of the futures and ETF's.  Click the chart to open a large version in a new tab / new window.

There is a gallery of all the charts that you can flip through on the bottom of the post.  I also added a few throughout, like Wheat and Oil.

As for the market, it was a hard week for anyone taking swing positions.  I imagine profits were given only to those who took them quickly and methodically.  For myself, weeks like these are great for the intraday action as long as you forgot what you think and follow the chart.  My average time in the market was about 30 mins, skewed a bit by Friday, where I pretty much held some amount of /TF (Russell 2000 E-mini) all day to the short side.

If you missed it Friday afternoon, @stockdarts posted a great wrap up of the week. http://bit.ly/hjJ01R

Wrap Up and Charts

Stock futures closed near session lows as the S&P 500 suffered its biggest one day loss in six months. Stock prices slid across the world as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak imposed curfew on the cities of Cairo, Suez, and Alexandria after a day of clashes between police and protesters demanding the end of his regime, according to Egyptian state television.

The protests in Egypt from many political and student factions raised concerns the government was losing control, which would lead to instability in the oil rich region. Protests there led to violence including the takeover of many local police stations there by the protesters. By nightfall Friday, martial law and a curfew were imposed by the Egyptian government and Army.

As of Friday, 207 of the S&P 500 companies had reported, representing 56% of the index’s total market capitalization, with the upside surprise ratio standing at 71% versus 70.4% the prior week, according to Charles Blood Jr., senior financial markets analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.

The market will a watchful eye on the events unfolding in Egypt and the Middle East on Sunday night’s trade and into Monday morning, as this is the main story for now. Earnings results on Thursday and Friday were mixed at best and so too was the economic data with bearish jobs and slightly bearish GDP data.

On to the charts.


Uptrends are still intact, some have more downside than others.  I think a further correction is possible if the news coming from the middle east doesn't improve by Sunday night / Monday.



/TF Daily – some estimated correction targets on the small caps.  Weekly candle isn't all that great, but its also news driven with Egypt.

770 – 5% | 730 – 10% | 670 – 17%



/ES Daily – 1250 is support


/NQ Daily – Didn't feel the need to do a QQQQ or a QLD, sorry AAPL is blah.

/YM Daily


Silver Futures

Play along with the SLV

Gold Futures

Play along with the GLD


Finally, a quick look at oil, on a daily basis we found support around $85, on a weekly chart at that 20 peroid moving average.  Any supply disruptions in Egypt or the Middle East could easily rocket is to above $90 a barrel.

Pay attention to the charts of  /HO and /RB at the end of the post.  They are at or near some critical levels.

/CL Daily


Now the DOW Transports and the SOX.  The Semiconduction Index (SOX) is looking good, the DOW Transports not so much.

Transports – 50 day?

SOX – support at the trend.


For my friend captkirk in the chatroom, short Wheat called to him.  


All the charts above plus /RB, /ZC, /ZW, /SB, /KC, /HG, /HO, /PL, /PA, /NG

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