Weekend Update for Monday, 2/7/2011

Being an intra-day trader, I don't look at the longer timeframe charts more than once or twice a week.  I find that while its good to analyze and know where you stand, it can intefere with your attitude and bias.

Its important as a day trader to not have a bias, to play what the price gives you, and make every trade a blank slate. Keep that in mind when you are looking at long term charts.

 

Not much to talk about this week.  Monday and Tuesday saw some good action.  Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday were range bound chop days.  

You can see from the /TFH1 (Russell 2000 Futures), also playable using the IWM ETF that we have gone essentially nowhere in the general market since making a high of 810.  What is interesting to note is that every dip has been bought very fast, money is flowing into the market and making it very hard to swing any short positions.

While the small caps (/TFH1) are in a range, the /ESH1 (S&P 500 emini Futures) seem to have broken out.  The 1320 target is on the table for the S&P 500.

I hesistate to mention the Nasdaq or the DOW, because AAPL, CAT, and IBM have so much influence.   However, they look the same as the S&P, targets are into resistance, with upside bias.

I also added the USD and the Euro for good measure.  Though the markets haven't been playing exactly to the tune of the currencies, I think you can make an assumption as to why.  Both are at decision points.  Does the USD rally, and the Euro fall ?  Does it take the markets with it?  Or can we continue to rally based on fundamentals and growth?

The Fed will take the training wheels off slowly, this week one of the governors said they would consider more QE if needed.  Are we addicted to free money?

 

Some of the commodities are in correction mode.  Gold (/GC) and Silver (/SI) had rough weeks as investors and trader sold them then ran back to the security of bullion with incertainty in Egypt.

Wheat (/ZW) ended weaker after testing all time highs. Corn (/ZC) and Coffee (/KC) both broke all time highs.  Food is going to get more expensive in the future.

Nymex Crude (/CL) had some of the tightest days I have seen in a while.  It found resistance at $92 several times and had a early Friday sell off on news that the Egyptian president will step down. (We think.)  Stockguy22 and members of the room played oil both long and short in the room for roughly 5-8% gains each time using ETF's.

 

Click the chart to open the imade in a new window.  This /TF 60 min chart for the last 30 days says it all.  Traders market.

 

And incase you didn't believe that last 3 days were a wash. Here is a /TF 15 min chart.

 

S&P 500 Emini 60 min 30 days

 

Nasdaq (/NQ) 60 min 30 days

The USD (/DX)

The Euro (/6E)

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