End of Day Charts, US budget deal, and a mess all around

Charts look good to the upside on an agreement for the U.S. debt going forward.  Europe is basically considering a default for Greece, more printing but less chance the defaults spread to the rest of the PIGS.  Free money, how can you not buy.

I'm cautiously long, only because if it's obvious to everyone chances are we will do the opposite.  Also if we rally too much in anticipation, then it will be a sell the news event. Careful consideration will have to be given to what the U.S. budget agreement actually says.

Gold and Silver could be in for a correction as investors have bought into the safety of the shiny metals. Typical mean reversion play.

You'll notice that the ribbons for short term are extended on many charts while the longer term are just establishing a trend.  I firmly believe that the market expresses some degree of symmetry and mean reversion in both long and short time frames.  It's just the nature of buying and selling; there is a move in a direction and a pull back before another move.

The charts below are 30 min charts, so be aware that I'm not talking about 2 weeks from now.  I'm talking a few days maybe a week or 2 at most.

Gold and Silver are the exception, I chose longer term (4 hour) charts only because I think you should be aware of the larger strength of trend in Gold.  Silver has some work to do, the margin increases and the previous blow off top will take time to repair.

Key levels are marked by the yellow horizontal lines.

 

ES

 

NQ

 

YM

 

TF

 

6E

 

DX

 

GC

 

SI

 

ZB

 

=======

My normal intraday chart for TF.  You can see the overnight move move down, following by buying on Greece deal news, and US premarket.  Then a sell into European close, 11:30 Am EDT, followed by a slow grid up.  The spike was a rumor that Obama and the rest of the clowns have an agreement. This was quickly refuted and faded.  I think that linger pop was responsible for the tight action in the afternoon.  Who wants to be the guy who is short into a real deal?  Nobody, that's who.

I caught 2 nice longs after the open and 1 short into Europes close.  The rest of the day was a wash, more made money for my broker than anything.  I was short some taking 5 ticks.  Same with a few longs. Nothing to speak of.

Posted in Charting & Analysis, Commentary Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , ,