Some thoughts

 

I haven’t done any market charts in a while, at least not on the site. Since its 4:30 AM EST and I’m up, what they heck.

So we might as well start with the things I trade. The TF (Russell 2000).  Click charts for full size.

TF 60 min chart – weakness and a case could be made that trend is broke and we now have resistance @ 835-840 area

 

The small caps were weak sauce lately compared to the dow 30.  I’ll be watching to see if we get a volume spike on a lower move and reverse, or if we really get to 800-805 area.  I would definitely try some long IWM positions in the 800 area; I think the risk reward would be favorable at that point.

I prefer to use horizontal support/resistance. I’m skeptical of the tenacity of the above chart trend line.  Could be a wedge maybe … If we break out of above that white circle; I will be riding it long to 2-5 points below the downward sloping line.  It’s really only 10 away …

 

YM 60 min – Horizontal resistance and and visually the trend line that would be similar to the TF is somewhat lower on the YM

 

Like TF I would look for the resistance above, YM was the stronger and less volatile of the indices.  13200 is a decent downside target if we resist @ 13400 area.  13000-12900 is definitely a good risk-reward setup of we get there for some options plays on DIA.

I can’t make a bull or bear case here for a swing. AAPL has been dragging the NQ down and we are near term at support levels.

 

NQ 60 min – nearing short term supports – if AAPL breaks down or GOOG stops being the strong leader – lookout below

 

I’m keeping a close eye on news regarding the iPhone 5. While reviews are generally positive, there is quite a bit more negatives this time around and I think overall it has been a disappointment outside the AAPL cult.  Not just the Apple Maps debacle, many users after having the phone for a bit, are complaining about things like the photo viewer not using the whole screen. It seems like a lot of the Steve Jobs ‘polish’ is not there.  Let’s face it, Steve Jobs was a tyrant and a despicably miserable person, but he demanded quality.

RIMM the #1 turd stock in my book has been demoing blackberry os 10 are whatever it’s called and it looks amazing. Can they execute? Probably not, they are better at executing their stock price than a product launch; but you never know. Risk versus reward is there on this trade to the long side.

You also have the overhead of Samsung vs AAPL and potential wars with Motorola/Google.

As for pure TA on the NQ, volume is getting close to a spike high – so this could signal an interim bottom. QQQ longs anyone?

Last let’s look at the news machine and dysfunctional fiat currency. Mr. Euro – step forward. Trend is what it is.  Does Greece exit? Does the ECB make more funny money? Only time will tell.

The previous Euro run could have been due to the sheer number of shorts. Squeeze it on some ‘positive’ news and let’s make a trade? European recession worsens and globally good-bye ….

 

Until that trend changes – expect downward pressure if correlations hold.

 

A note on the commodities, as long as we are getting USD rallies commodities will take hits. It happens every time and people are caught off guard every time.  I think we could see $85 oil or lower before winter; as always I’ll be buying the big down days small until I get a good swing trade long.

  • Watch oil predominantly for some clues – oil went full on sell nearly closing Nov contract below $90
  • Gold as long as Fed speak / gold bugs / safety is not too strong
  • Silver has a gap fill to work on – 28-34 since Aug – it might need some sideways consolidation
  • Copper has me interested in a Dec long
  • Nat Gas as has me interested in a potential Dec or 2013 long swing

I’ll try to do more of these if anyone is reading them and likes it. Hit me up with an email using the contact form or sign up for a free account and use the helpdesk.

I neglected the S&P, it looks similar to the NQ or TF really.  1420 holds – we reverse.  If not lets gun for 1390-1400, 10 point moves served up hot and sloppy.

jstantrades

 

PS .. this might help some of you struggling to find direction.  I have been messing with ‘monkey trades’ as CG used to call them.  For this, all you need is a 5min chart and no indicators.  You either buy the break above the first 5 min bar – or sell the break down below the first 5 min bar.

YM was choppy, but could have netted 20-40 points. And easily 5-10 if you are scalping. Something to think about @ $5 per point per contract.

TF was honey badger money. Over $800 potentially.

Here are the charts with markers. I’ll post one of these a day and you can do it yourself.  We’ll bahnahnah eating good’ole time.

… YM … games … we play ..

 

TF – Gangnam Style

 

 

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