AAPL is going to slowly die without Jobs

As far as I am concerned the iPhone 5 launch is a failure. The iPhone survives on the cool factor and hype, and that too will soon fade without front man Steve Jobs.

It’s no secret that Steve Jobs was Apple.   He was the driver of perfection and the absolute power to determine what Apple customers wanted. Now Apple has Tim Cook, a man who apologizes for screw ups instead of preventing them in the first place. not that Jobs didn’t have his fair share of ‘oops’ moments.

Arstechnica has a good article about life after Steve Jobs at Apple. One word.  Complacency.

http://arstechnica.com/apple/2012/10/the-ghost-of-jobs-apples-challenge-to-decide-what-would-steve-do/

 

Disclosure: I’m long AAPL DEC Call Spreads.  So I’m bullish, but definitely analyzing my exit strategy.

The performance and general buying in of everyone I talk to on this dip has me worried, trade is leaning way too far to one side.   Is it possible that over the next few years AAPL is going to start the toilet swirl of the 1990’s?  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sub-400 AAPL stock price before the end of the year if earnings come in light.

I might not be right, but I don’t see the benefit of large traders owning a stock that screws up a device launch that accounts for 70% of its revenue.  It’s a complete fail.

Even if they didn’t push it up, its ridiculous to not have planned better with production and distribution. I am calling this a “WTF” moment for AAPL.

Chinese unrest will be quelled by beatings and the Great Firewall.  AAPL will probably explore new suppliers.  Still a very risky proposition, but at least they have $117 billion in cash to burn.  That should put a bottom in as long as nobody absconds with it.

If AAPL commoditizes their product line, you can guarantee profits will suffer.  Once the market is saturated with AAPL tech, hipsters won’t feel cool with it anymore.

Samsung is also allowed to sell its Galaxy Tab again and is appealing the verdict from the copyright infringement trial due to allegations of misconduct by the jury foreman.

I will stop out of my call spreads if AAPL drops $600, and I depending on the action around 650 next week I will play the downside with weeklies.  Right now I have been trading around the position intraday, but I am not liking the action or the fundamentals long term.

I’m sure I will get hate mail from AAPL fan boys.  I’m typing this on OSX and it feels dirty, but fanboy-ism has no place in trading. Pigs get slaughtered.

 

PS. Check out GOOG.  Take that AAPL. Take .. it .. hard…

 

 

iPad Mini

The recent 7″ iPad announcement shows that Steve Jobs is definitely gone, as are his beliefs in never having a small iPad.

http://www.eweek.com/mobile/ipad-mini-unofficial-renderings-appear-release-date-rumor-surfaces/

http://www.techradar.com/us/news/mobile-computing/tablets/ipad-mini-release-date-news-and-rumours-1076821

A report straight out of China suggests that key Apple manufactures Foxconn and Pegatron have started to receive orders for the new iPad mini. It goes on to say the factories will have 6 million units ready for a launch in Q3 of 2012.

 An iMore source claims that the iPad Mini will be ready by October 2012. Hold on to your hats people!

A Taiwanese source has claimed that the mini iPad will be in the hands of consumers before Christmas, with a third quater launch on the cards.

According to Bloomberg, an unnamed source said a tablet with a screen size of “7 to 8 inches diagonally” will arrive before 2012 reaches its close.

The Wall Street Journal reports that sources in Apple’s Asian supply chain have revealed the iPad Mini will go into production from September.

 

 

Apple Maps is a half finished buggy piece of software.

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2012/09/21/apple-responds-to-iphone-5-maps-flap-it-will-get-better/

“I have just installed iOS6 and I am so disappointed with the new Maps application. Steve Jobs would have never allowed such a mediocre application to be included in the iOS,” wrote one user on Apple’s discussion forums.

“I’m in the UK, and the new Maps app is laughable. Entire towns are missing, and the image resolution is appalling. How could Apple have got it so wrong?? “ another frustrated user wrote.

“Maps is a downgrade, not an upgrade. It’s shocking!”

Response: “Woops. Sorry.  We put our hate of GOOG over our customers.  Thermo-nuclear baby.”

http://www.apple.com/letter-from-tim-cook-on-maps/

Use it from safari .. LMAO

 

iPhone 5 pictures have a purple flare.

http://gizmodo.com/5947972/apple-acknowledges-iphone-5-camera-problem-says-youre-holding-it-wrong

Response: “You’re doing it wrong.”

 

Slow wifi.

https://discussions.apple.com/message/19714586#19714586

Response: “We’re working on it.”

 

Shoddy cases design and testing.  Light leakage.

http://www.bgr.com/2012/09/24/iphone-5-light-leak-apple-defect/

The light leak and loosening chamfer on BGR’s defective iPhone 5 was a 64GB white and silver model running on AT&T. The light leak is unnoticeable except when the iPhone 5 is used under low-light or completely dark situations.

Response: “Oh. Don’t look at it.”

 

Scratches and scuffs easily.

Scratched out of the box.

http://www.bgr.com/2012/09/24/iphone-5-scratching-scuffs/

This is actually somewhat interesting.  Foxconn, the maker of the iPhone hardware implemented quality controls and made the workers work during the Chinese National Day holiday week.  So they apparently are on strike.   This is just after there was a worker riot and some workers are now working under armed guards. Rumors.

Per Slashdot,

As many as 3,000-4,000 workers are on strike at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory, upset at stricter quality control requirements with the iPhone 5 and having to work through a national holiday this week. ‘According to workers, multiple iPhone 5 production lines from various factory buildings were in a state of paralysis for the entire day,’ China Labor Watch said. Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo are both blocking searches in Chinese for ‘Foxconn strikes.’

http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/29/technology/apple-foxconn-report/index.htm?iid=EL

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/05/technology/mobile/foxconn-iphone-5-strike/?source=cnn_bin

http://www.itworld.com/it-consumerization/300915/foxconn-workers-strike-over-iphone-5-production-labor-group-says

There are some denials by Foxconn.

Response: None, reports of asking foxconn to confirm.

 

Siri confused.

http://www.macrumors.com/2012/09/24/siri-delivering-wrong-weather-forecasts-for-common-city-names/

More software issues.

https://discussions.apple.com/search.jspa?resultTypes=&dateRange=all&peopleEnabled=true&q=siri+wrong+weather&containerType=14&container=2043&containerName=iPhone&username=&rankBy=relevance&numResults=15

Response:  “derp.”

 

Don’t even mention the desktop market.

 

But OSX is safer. Nope. Sorry dudes.

http://arstechnica.com/apple/2012/04/kaspersky-lab-mac-os-x-invulnerability-to-malware-is-a-myth/

 

Get a PC with twice as much power as a Mac for the same price.

Mac:

CPU: Intel Xeon Quad-Core 2.93GHz
RAM: 6GB (3x2GB)
HDD: 1x 640GB, 7200-rpm ,Serial ATA, 3Gb/s
GPU: 1x ATI Radeon HD 4870 512MB
Optical Drive: 18x SuperDrive
Apple Mighty Mouse
Apple Keyboard with Numeric Keypad (English) and User’s Guide
Case: Mac
3349 usd

PC:

CPU: Intel® Core™ i7 975 Processor Extreme Edition 4x 3.33GHz
Memory: 6 GB (2x 3GB)
GPU: 2x NVIDIA GeForce GTX 295 PCI-Express x16 – 1792MB – SLI Mode
HDD: 2x 1.5 TB, 7200-rpm, Serial ATA, 3Gb/s
Optical Drive: 5X Blu-Ray, Sony Optiarc BC-5100S BLU-RAY Reader & DVD±R/±RW Burner Combo Drive
Motherboard: Asus P6T Intel X58 Chipset CrossFire and SLI Supported w/7.1 Sound, Triple-Channel DDR3, Gb LAN, S-ATA Raid, USB 2.0, 3-Way SLI PCI-E MB – 3-Way SLI
Case: CoolerMaster HAF 922 Mid Tower Gaming Case
3240 USD


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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