Nasdaq:AAPL – Apple Chart and notes by stockguy22 & option trades

 

 

Nasdaq:AAPL  – Apple Chart and notes by stockguy22 & option trades

 

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Some Key things to note on the AAPL chart & the 20day sma &  200 day sma ( sma are simple moving averages)

I use these on my charts since give a good picture both long and short term on swing trades that I do.

Ever since reaching the $705.27 high on Sept 21, 2012 Apple has been struggling on all bounces and after failing  the 20day sma on Sept 25th drop it has had a tough time getting and staying back over that key 20day sma. You can see each of the past few bounces on the chart below.

Its now been over  4 months that AAPL has been below the 200day sma key area. Through 2011 & 2012 the 200day sma provided me with some amazing buys on AAPL since was incredible support at that level or just below.

Last time Apple has been this weak under the 200day sma was back during the Global Financial crisis in Oct 2008 – April 2009 where it stayed below for 7 months . 

We are now at a point where AAPL is well hated but the chart and risk/reward are looking more attractive to me.

Today I took a few options positions since I felt its a good time for me to take on some risk.

So what can make AAPL bounce back up from here ?

 

 

1) AppleTV  or iTV – this should happen sometime this year and could turn analysts current projections on just iphones & ipads completely upside down in a good way. As an investor and Apple product user ( current appleTV, iphones, ipad, Mac)  The big Apple TV is the only thing I can think of that I would give more than $1,000 of my money to Apple in the next few years. So I hope they have been working on this in the background. With the other big companies also starting their own internet TV versions , Apple can’t sit around waiting too long or they can get leapfrogged by other companies. Internet TV will be changing completely in the next few years and I’d be surprised if Apple is not part of this since even Steve Jobs had tried to get $CBS exclusive rights for TV content. I’d be surprised if this is not further along then most expect at this point. Even Intel $INTC recently announced plans for an internet TV launch http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/12/intel-plans-to-launch-online-tv-service-making-entry-into-media-market/?__lsa=ffaf-a796

Apple iTV could launch by Oct/Nov 2013 so we could see news even sooner. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100461727/When_to_Expect_Apple_iTV_iPhone_5S_and_Tablets_Analyst

2) A buyout of another company that could compliment Apple iTV or other apple products.

3) current AppleTV box opened up to 3rd Party Developers   http://www.macrumors.com/2012/06/08/apple-reportedly-set-to-open-up-apple-tv-to-third-party-developers-at-wwdc/

4) iWatch –  this could end up making more money than TV http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-04/apple-s-planned-iwatch-could-be-more-profitable-than-tv.html

I find this hard to believe since I would not buy one and I see it more as a “nike” type wrist band appeal.

5) Mini Iphone for the  international market or a less expensive iphone. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324391104578230060513922882.html

6) More Icloud investment   http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/03/09/first-look-apples-icloud-data-center-site-in-reno-nevada

7) More R&D spending-increased 40% in 2012  http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57543370-37/apple-r-d-spending-up-nearly-40-percent-in-2012/

8) A product out of left field that would compete with Google Glass if it became popular?

At the last Shareholder Meeting Tim Cook did state that … they are working on new products. More here: http://stockguy22.com/2013/02/27/talk-today-apple-shareholders-meeting-aapl-wednesday-feb-27-2013/ so not surprising if AAPL comes up with some new product announcements

With the recent lawsuit and outcry from investors on using that pile of cash which was at $137B but probably growing over $3B more each month we could start seeing more money going back to investors ( even though so much of it is overseas).

9) Higher Dividend or Special Dividend — earlier today re:  GAMCO saying #Apple  $AAPL would announce new capital Reallocation Plan soon http://sg22.ly/YWiYTX

10) Announcement of more Share buybacks or Stock Split

last year AAPL committed to $45B over 3 years in Dividend and Share Buyback http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-announces-plan-to-initiated-dividend-an-a-share-buyback-2012-3

Even Warren Buffet has suggested that Tim Cook buy back AAPL shares  :  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffets-advice-tim-cook-171353407.html He had given the same advice to Steve Jobs before he died when he asked him what to do with all the cash piling up.

” I did talk with Steve Jobs a few years ago about what they might do with the cash. The best thing you can do with a business is run it well, and the shares will respond,” Buffet said.

“When Steve called me, I said, ‘Is your stock cheap?’ He said, ‘yes.’ I said, ‘Do you have more cash than you need?’ He said, ‘a little.’ [laughs] I said, ‘then buy back your stock.’ He didn’t … But if you could buy dollar bills for 80 cents, it’s a very good thing to do.”

 

 

I personally think we most likely see #9 / #10 into next earnings or before and definitely #1 , #3, #4, #5  or possibly #6 I think #2  would also be great — but any of the others could help Apple with an element of surprise for the markets. #8 is probably unlikely near term but possible a few years away.

That could help get some of the shareholders that piled on to GOOG recently to lock up profits and look to get back into AAPL at these reduced prices.

11) Earnings could be good or bad for the stock but  with AAPL drop and the PE currently under 10 I think it was a great risk/reward.

Earnings may still be an issue going forward into the end of April for the 2nd Quarter of 2013 (on  April 23, 2013)

Forecast for this next Q is projected to be $10.89 lower than last year’s $12.30.

AAPL chart below with notes : Some of the notes only available to Gold & Diamond members:

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Stockguy22 Apple AAPL chart and notes for March 2013

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